ADDIS ABABA — Ethiopia is navigating a profound contradiction. On the economic front, the government projects robust growth and celebrates record export revenues. On the security front, the country is once again engulfed in a northern war that threatens to unravel the fragile peace that has held since 2022—and potentially draw the entire Horn of Africa into a broader regional conflict.
The Collapse of the Pretoria Peace
The renewed hostilities erupted on September 21, 2026, when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) launched coordinated attacks against federal forces, shattering the Pretoria peace agreement that had ended the devastating 2020-2022 civil war . Within days, the conflict spread from Tigray into neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, triggering fears of a return to one of the deadliest conflicts of the twenty-first century .
The military tide has since turned in the government’s favor. By early October, federal forces and allied militias had retaken the regional capital Mekelle after the TPLF withdrew . Government forces then pushed north, entering the key town of Adwa—roughly 40 kilometers from the Eritrean border—without a fight on October 11 . Flights to Mekelle resumed on October 11 after being suspended when clashes broke out, and telecommunications services have been partially restored .
Yet the situation on the ground remains precarious. Residents of Adwa described shuttered shops, looted government institutions including the local hospital, and deserted roads. “People are very afraid of theft,” one resident told AFP . Conflict monitor ACLED reported a drone strike on a hotel in Adwa on October 4 that wounded between five and nine people, with unverified reports suggesting TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael may have been present .
A Dangerous Diplomatic Rupture With Eritrea
The military conflict has metastasized into a full-blown diplomatic crisis between Ethiopia and Eritrea—former allies who fought together against the TPLF during the last war. On October 1, Ethiopia announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, accusing them of “direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence” . Eritrea responded by severing all diplomatic ties, accusing Ethiopia of pursuing an agenda to seize Eritrean ports and coastal areas to secure sea access .
Ethiopia has formally accused Eritrea of backing the TPLF rebels. In a letter to the UN Security Council, Addis Ababa claimed Eritrean forces had crossed the border and advanced up to 60 kilometers into Ethiopian territory, asserting its right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter . Eritrea’s Foreign Minister Osman Saleh countered that Ethiopia had effectively “declared war” and urged the Security Council to take “deterrent measures” .
A foreign security source told AFP that between 5,000 and 8,000 Eritrean soldiers are present in Tigray . Witnesses in Adigrat reported seeing Eritrean soldiers in the streets, moving south in trucks mounted with heavy weaponry . ACLED reported that Eritrean troops crossed the border at Zelambesa and that Tigrayan rebel forces were “heavily deployed” around Wukro along the same road toward Mekelle .
Egypt and the Regional Dimension
The crisis has also drawn in Egypt. Ethiopia declared a member of the Egyptian embassy persona non grata, prompting Cairo to expel an Ethiopian diplomat in a reciprocal move . Ethiopia has accused Egypt and Sudan of supporting the rebel alliance—allegations all three countries deny .
The regional dimension was underscored by a mini-summit in the Egyptian city of Alamein on October 4, where the presidents of Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan—all of whom have difficult relations with Ethiopia—met to discuss the conflict . Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi urged “dialogue, not confrontation” and called for relations based on “mutual respect, good neighbourliness, dialogue and consultation, far from unilateral policies or narrow interests” .
For Ethiopia, the gathering of rivals in Egypt raised concerns of a coordinated front. The conflict intersects with the long-standing Nile dam dispute, Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access, and Eritrea’s fears of Ethiopian expansionism .
A Humanitarian and Human Rights Emergency
The human cost of the renewed fighting is mounting. Amnesty International reported receiving credible accounts of destruction of civilian objects through shelling and airstrikes, intensified forced conscription, and other acts that may constitute violations of international humanitarian law . The organization expressed particular alarm at reports that civilian infrastructure, including several schools, had been damaged or targeted during aerial attacks .
The disruption of communication services across Tigray, Afar, and Amhara has raised grave concerns. “Such restrictions have frequently concealed atrocities and isolated civilians from the outside world,” said Tigere Chagutah, Amnesty International’s Regional Director for East and Southern Africa. “We call on all relevant authorities to immediately restore access to communications services” .
Amnesty has urged the African Union’s Peace and Security Council to convene an emergency session on Ethiopia, warning that the AU “cannot wait for mass atrocities to unfold or for a surge in civilian casualties before placing Ethiopia, its host country, on the agenda” . The 2020-2022 conflict left hundreds of thousands dead, millions displaced, and thousands of women and girls subjected to conflict-related sexual violence—yet meaningful accountability remains largely absent .
Economic Ambitions Amid Turmoil
Paradoxically, even as war rages in the north, Ethiopia’s government is projecting confidence on the economic front. On October 6, President Taye Atske Selassie announced a 10.1 percent growth target for the 2026/2027 fiscal year, building on 10.2 percent growth last year . Export revenues reached a record $11.2 billion, and foreign direct investment inflows rose to $4.5 billion .
The World Bank has raised Ethiopia’s 2026 growth projection from 8.0 percent to 9.2 percent, making it the second-fastest-growing economy in sub-Saharan Africa after South Sudan . The IMF similarly projects strong growth, though it warns of a slowdown to 7.8 percent in 2026/27 partly due to spillovers from the Middle East conflict .
But the economic picture is more nuanced than headline figures suggest. Inflation rose to 11.7 percent in April 2026, driven by higher food prices . The World Bank estimates poverty rose from 27 percent to 32 percent between 2016 and 2021, and 70 percent of the workforce still depends on agriculture . Turning growth into jobs and improved living standards remains a formidable challenge.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose Prosperity Party won 438 of 486 parliamentary seats in June elections, was reappointed for a second five-year term on October 5 . The new government’s agenda of reforms, investment, and productivity now confronts the reality of renewed war in the north .
A Nation at the Precipice
Ethiopia today stands at a dangerous crossroads. Federal forces have regained the military initiative in Tigray, but the TPLF’s declared shift to guerrilla warfare echoes its successful insurgency during the last war—when it ultimately retook Mekelle . The diplomatic rupture with Eritrea has raised the specter of interstate war, while the gathering of Ethiopia’s regional rivals in Egypt suggests a broader alignment against Addis Ababa.
The economic ambitions articulated in parliament—10.1 percent growth, record exports, foreign investment—remain achievable only if the guns fall silent. But the Pretoria agreement’s collapse has exposed how little reconciliation actually occurred. The grievances that fueled the 2020-2022 war—disputes over federal power, regional autonomy, and access to resources—remain unresolved.
For the millions of Ethiopians in the north who lived through the last war, the fear is visceral. They know what comes next if the fighting continues: the shelling of towns, the flight from homes, the hospitals overflowing with the wounded. The African Union, the United Nations, and the international community have all issued appeals for restraint. The question is whether anyone with the power to stop this war is listening.
