NAIROBI/ADDIS ABABA — East Africa’s farmers enter the final weeks of 2026 caught between a weather system they cannot control and a market system that too often works against them. The El Niño rains that were supposed to bring relief after a punishing drought now threaten to flood fields, spread livestock disease, and wash away the gains of a decent harvest. In Ethiopia, a fertilizer shortage has left farmers planting without the inputs they need. In Kenya, wheat and maize growers are threatening to abandon their crops because the prices they are offered do not cover the cost of production. In Uganda, coffee prices are historically high on world markets, but the gap between what exporters earn and what farmers receive remains stubbornly wide. The region’s farmers are doing what they always do: adapting, improvising, and absorbing shocks that are not of their making.
El Niño: The Relief That Became a Threat
The October-to-December rains arrived with the promise of relief after a year of drought that parched pastures and destroyed crops across the region. But the same El Niño that brought the rain has turned it into a hazard. The East African Community adopted a regional preparedness and response plan at an extraordinary meeting in early November, warning that El Niño is associated with heavy rainfall, flooding, landslides, crop and livestock losses, and disease outbreaks . Uganda’s Ministry of Agriculture urged farmers to follow weather advisories and seek guidance from extension officers, particularly among farming, livestock-keeping, and fishing communities .
In Kenya, the meteorological service identified 18 counties at high risk of floods, landslides, and livestock losses, with Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu singled out as high-risk urban centres. The Coast region—Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa, and Kwale—faces flooding, storm surges, and coastal erosion. The Lake Basin counties of Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori are expected to experience flooding, landslides, and disease outbreaks. In the Rift Valley, counties like Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot, and Narok may face drought, flash floods, and livestock losses simultaneously .
The memory of the 2023 El Niño looms large. That season affected 38 counties, destroyed over 25,000 acres of farmland, and displaced three-quarters of a million households. The Kenya Veterinary Association has called for accelerated preparations, warning that for livestock-dependent households, the impacts translate into reduced incomes, food insecurity, and prolonged recovery. “Preparedness is considerably less costly than emergency response after disasters have already occurred,” said KVA President Kevin Osore .
For crop farmers, the risks are waterlogged fields, a surge in fungal and bacterial diseases, and depleted soils. The best protection, agronomists advise, is to dig drainage ditches before the rains become too heavy. For livestock keepers, the advice is to move animals, feed, equipment, and medicines to areas least likely to flood before movement becomes impossible .
Ethiopia: Planting Without Fertilizer
In Ethiopia’s Northern Shewa Zone, Amhara Region, farmers are facing a crisis that has nothing to do with the weather. Solomon Teka, 48, farms three hectares of onion, wheat, and teff to support a family of five. His land typically yields about 15 quintals of teff and 40 quintals of wheat annually—but only if he can apply the 15 quintals of NPS and urea fertilizer he needs each year. This season, the cooperative union he relies on could only provide one quintal, at a cost of 3,500 birr. On the parallel market, fertilizer prices have tripled to 15,000 birr per quintal .
“I would have bought it,” Solomon told Addis Fortune. “It’s not like I have much of a choice” .
Official data from the Amhara Agriculture Bureau shows that only three million quintals were delivered to unions out of the 5.2 million quintals procured for the region. A group of 20 farmers traveled 72 kilometers to Addis Ababa to petition the Ministry of Agriculture. They were told to be patient—the fertilizer was still on its way .
The consequences are already visible. Over 56 million quintals of teff were harvested from 2.9 million hectares, with Amhara and Oromia contributing more than half. The fertilizer shortage now threatens next year’s crop. In Oromia, only 5.9 million quintals of fertilizer reached the unions despite a demand for 9.2 million quintals. Takele Kurunde, head of Agricultural Input Supply at the Oromia Agriculture Bureau, urged farmers to make compost, claiming 97 million cubic meters of natural fertilizer were prepared to help bridge the gap. But Yibeqal Getahun, a plant science researcher at Haramaya University, cautioned that production volumes could plummet by up to 40 percent without timely fertilizer use, given that crops like teff have specific nutrient needs not met by the country’s soil .
The root cause is a foreign exchange crunch. The state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, the only bank authorized to open letters of credit for fertilizer imports, slashed its initial plan to open 24 LCs in half until May. The delayed LCs meant the fertilizer arrived too late for the main rainy season. Officials are now contemplating allowing the private sector to import fertilizer—a move experts have long recommended .
Kenya: When the Price Doesn’t Cover the Cost
In Narok, farmers are threatening to stop cultivating wheat and maize altogether. The reason is simple arithmetic: millers are offering between Sh3,100 and Sh3,200 for a 90-kilogram bag of wheat, while farmers are demanding Sh6,000. For maize, the situation is similar. The farmers say the high cost of production, driven by fuel prices, has made the crops unviable .
Stanley Konyo, a farmer in Narok, said a large portion of land in the area has remained unused because of high production costs. “Most large-scale farmers depend on tractors for tilling, harrowing, planting, spraying, and harvesting. But because of the increased fuel prices, the cost of production has shot up too high, forcing many to withdraw from farming,” he said. The cost of tilling one acre has risen from Sh1,800 to Sh2,500, and harrowing from Sh1,000 to Sh1,500 .
David Kilesi, another farmer, said many farmers have shifted from wheat to potatoes, cabbage, carrots, maize, and peas, or have subdivided their land and leased it to small-scale farmers. He urged the government to subsidize farm inputs, lower import duties on fertilizers and pesticides, and introduce guaranteed minimum returns so that farmers affected by poor harvests can plant again and service their loans .
The maize outlook for the season is mixed. Early projections anticipated a bumper crop following strong initial rains, but premature dry spells during the critical flowering and grain-filling stages mean actual output in key commercial baskets will fall short of initial forecasts. Rather than a post-harvest price crash, reduced supply will likely keep farm-gate prices firm in the Sh3,500–3,900 range through the fourth quarter. The El Niño rains add operational risks: unseasonal late-year rains bring significant drying, post-harvest handling, and aflatoxin contamination risks. Commercial millers will pay a strong premium for clean, dry grain under 13.5 percent moisture content .
Uganda: High Global Prices, Thin Farm-Gate Margins
Uganda’s coffee farmers are benefiting from historically high global prices. The November 2026 Robusta contract closed at $3,469 per tonne, and Arabica futures were around $2.60 per pound. But the prices farmers actually receive tell a different story. Farmers were receiving between Sh15,000 and Sh16,000 per kilogramme for Arabica parchment, while clean Drugar coffee was selling at Sh14,500 to Sh15,000. Kiboko was selling for between Sh5,000 and Sh6,000 per kilogramme .
The gap between international and farm-gate prices is a persistent feature of Uganda’s coffee sector. A rise in the global market does not automatically mean an equal increase in what a farmer receives. The ministry’s own analysis acknowledges that farmers remain exposed to international price movements, weather conditions, and the country’s ability to maintain export volumes .
The sector is also facing structural pressures. Rising fertilizer prices and disease management costs are eroding margins for smallholders, who cultivate 90 percent of output on plots typically between 0.5 and 2.5 hectares. While production is forecast to edge up to 7.2 million bags in 2026/27, supported by area expansion and favorable weather, the gains are fragile. More than 98 percent of Uganda’s coffee is shipped as green beans, with the European Union taking roughly 73 percent of exports. Domestic consumption remains modest, though it is expected to rise to about 335,000 bags, driven by urbanization and a slow build-up of local roasting capacity .
Tanzania: A Higher Maize Price, But Not Enough Buyers
Tanzania’s government has raised the maize purchasing price from Sh450 to Sh500 per kilogramme, the latest in a series of increases from Sh200 to Sh300 to Sh450. Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa ordered the National Food Reserve Agency to expedite procedures for selling agricultural produce, and urged farmers with maize to visit NFRA regional and zonal offices to benefit from the improved price .
But the Prime Minister also cautioned that NFRA might not have the capacity to purchase the entire maize harvest, stressing the need to diversify markets and strengthen export arrangements . Vice-President Deogratius Ndejembi, speaking in Ruvuma Region, emphasized that higher production must go hand in hand with adequate storage facilities, local processing industries, and reliable markets to protect farmers from losses associated with declining crop prices during harvest seasons .
The challenge is a familiar one: when farmers produce a bumper harvest, prices fall, and the government agency meant to stabilize the market cannot absorb the surplus. The proposed construction of crop storage warehouses and a maize flour processing factory in Mbinga is intended to address this by adding value and extending the shelf life of produce. But these are long-term investments, and the farmers who need a buyer today cannot wait for a factory to be built .
The Common Thread
East Africa’s farmers are not passive victims of weather and markets. They are making decisions every day about what to plant, whether to plant at all, and how to feed their families when the harvest falls short. The Narok farmers threatening to abandon wheat are making a rational calculation about costs and returns. Solomon Teka buying fertilizer at triple the price on the parallel market is doing what he must to keep his land productive. The coffee farmer in Uganda accepting Sh15,000 per kilogramme while the world price is higher is absorbing a margin that someone else captures.
What connects these stories is the absence of buffers. When the rains fail, there is no irrigation. When fertilizer does not arrive, there is no alternative. When prices fall, there is no floor. When floods come, there is no drainage. The EAC’s El Niño preparedness plan and the various government interventions are attempts to build those buffers. Whether they arrive in time—for the farmer in Amhara planting without fertilizer, the wheat grower in Narok deciding whether to plant at all, and the coffee farmer in Uganda watching the world price from a distance—is the question that will determine whether this season is remembered as a crisis or a near miss.
