Here is a roundup of recent developments in global and European commerce — supply-chain shifts, retail trends and broader market signals — as of December 9, 2025. I highlight tensions, structural shifts, and what they mean for businesses and consumers.—## 🌍 Macro & Global Trade: A Slowing but Tense Outlook* The Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) recently **revised down** its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to **0.5%**, a sharp drop from the 1.8% anticipated earlier. ([FashionNetwork][1])* While 2025 is forecast at about **2.4% growth**, boosted in part by a surge in goods tied to AI and some front-loaded demand ahead of tariff changes, the outlook for 2026 reflects growing uncertainty. ([FashionNetwork][1])* This slowdown underlines a fragile global trade context, where protectionist pressures, geopolitical frictions, and shifting supply-chain strategies are reshaping the flow of goods worldwide. ([Valtus][2])**Implication:** Businesses — especially those reliant on cross-border supply chains — must prepare for tighter margins and less predictable demand; diversification of sourcing and flexibility in logistics planning will likely be more critical than ever.—## 🛒 Retail & E-commerce: Transformation, But Mixed Results### Physical retail under pressure* In France, the specialised retail segment saw sales drop **1.9% in September 2025** vs. the same month in 2024 (on a like-for-like surface basis), according to the panel Procos. For the first three quarters of 2025, cumulative sales are down **0.7%** compared to 2024. ([FashionNetwork][3])* The decline is uneven across sectors: while “Culture, Gifts & Leisure” — boosted by toys — and home-equipment saw modest gains, clothing, beauty/perfume retail and even sectors tied to beauty and personal care suffered steep declines (around –5%). ([FashionNetwork Monaco][4])* The clothing sector is particularly hard hit: according to Alliance du Commerce, fashion store turnover dropped **5.8%** in September 2025, with foot traffic down 6.5% and online sales down 2.3%. ([ECN | E-Commerce Nation][5])These numbers paint a challenging picture for bricks-and-mortar retail, even as festive season spending approaches.### E-commerce and marketplace dominance* Marketplaces now account for around **70%** of European e-commerce revenue (on a €358.7 billion base in 2024/2025), amounting to roughly €247.5 billion — a clear indicator that marketplaces, rather than individual webshops, drive the bulk of online retail. ([Cross-Border Commerce Association][6])* Meanwhile, the structure of retail media is evolving fast: as argued in a recent analysis of 2026 trends, the rise of AI, shifting consumer expectations, and demand for integrated experiences are pushing retailers and brands to rethink how they advertise and sell — from fragmented platforms to more streamlined, data-driven “retail media” strategies. ([la Réclame][7])**Implication:** E-commerce remains robust and increasingly centralized in marketplaces. For brands, success increasingly depends on mastering marketplace algorithms, data analytics, and orchestrating omnichannel strategies — while physical retailers must rethink formats, services, and value propositions.—## 📦 Supply Chain & Logistics: Disruptions, Reorganisation, and the Role of Tech* Global supply chains are increasingly strained under shifting trade policies, geopolitical uncertainty, and evolving regulatory environments — driving many firms to **reassess sourcing geographies** and supply-chain resilience. ([Valtus][2])* The increasing complexity of supply-chain management is pushing companies to adopt advanced technologies. As showcased by the first European edition of NRF 2025: Retail’s Big Show Europe — held in Paris — a major focus was on AI-powered logistics, real-time data analytics, omnichannel fulfillment and sustainable supply-chain solutions. ([comexposium.com][8])* The success of that show (12,500+ participants from 58 countries, 500 exhibitors, and 100+ startups) underlines how critical innovation is to navigating today’s volatile supply-chain environment. ([Voxlog][9])**Implication:** Firms that invest in supply-chain digitization, AI-driven forecasting, and diversified sourcing may better buffer themselves against future disruptions. Supply-chain agility is becoming not a “nice-to-have,” but a survival imperative.—## 🏢 Investment & Real Estate in Retail: Some Signs of Renewed Confidence* According to a June 2025 review, real-estate investors have begun to return to retail assets in France. In 2024–2025, retail properties accounted for a significant portion of total commercial real-estate investment volumes — up to 40% of early 2025 flows. ([CoStar][10])* Large deals — notably the acquisition by Ardian of a 60% stake in a prime Parisian retail-property portfolio from luxury group Kering (for €837 million) — illustrate investor belief in long-term value, even as retail faces headwinds. ([CoStar][10])* Some players interpret this as the beginning of a rebound: after years of “retail-bashing,” investors now view retail as a viable asset class once again — albeit with caution. ([CoStar][10])**Implication:** Despite macroeconomic and retail-sector challenges, the real-estate attractiveness of retail locations — especially well-located, “prime” sites — remains high. This could benefit city-centre commerce over big-box malls, and suggests a revaluation of retail property as a long-term investment.—## ⚠️ Big Themes & Risks to Watch* **Uncertain demand + rising costs:** Falling consumer confidence, inflation, and cost-of-living pressures (especially in Europe) may depress consumption, particularly discretionary spending (fashion, beauty, leisure).* **Dependency on marketplaces and supply chains:** The dominance of marketplaces centralizes power, which can squeeze margins for smaller retailers. Reliance on complex global supply chains adds fragility.* **Need for digital transformation:** Firms that don’t invest in AI, data analytics, omnichannel integration and flexible logistics risk being left behind — both online and offline.* **Regulatory and trade-policy volatility:** As the global trade environment shifts (tariffs, export controls, geopolitical tensions), firms must adapt quickly or face disruptions.* **Real-estate bifurcation:** While prime retail real-estate remains appealing to investors, lower-tier locations may suffer further as footfall declines.—## ✅ What Businesses & Retailers Should Do — Key Recommendations1. **Diversify sourcing and suppliers** — avoid over-reliance on single-country supply chains; consider near-shoring or multi-country sourcing to mitigate risks.2. **Accelerate digital transformation and AI adoption**, especially for supply-chain, inventory management, demand forecasting and omnichannel retail.3. **Rethink physical retail formats and value propositions** — focus on experience, convenience, services, and differentiation to counter declining footfall.4. **Leverage marketplaces intelligently** — optimize presence, data use and visibility; tailor strategies for digital shelf space.5. **Monitor real-estate investments and location strategy** — prime locations may offer long-term value; secondary ones need adaptation or repurposing.—If you like, I can **project scenarios for 2026** — showing likely “best-case”, “worst-case” and “baseline” paths for global commerce & retail.* [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/nine-eu-nations-urge-extreme-caution-buy-european-policies-2025-12-08/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)* [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-export-controls-push-european-firms-move-supply-chains-2025-12-01/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)* [TechRadar](https://www.techradar.com/pro/over-two-thirds-of-retailers-have-already-partially-deployed-ai-agents-for-efficiency?utm_source=chatgpt.com)* [axios.com](https://www.axios.com/2025/12/08/cities-leading-live-shopping-boom?utm_source=chatgpt.com)* [lemonde.fr](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/12/03/the-significant-trade-imbalance-between-france-and-china_6748097_19.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)[1]: https://fr.fashionnetwork.com/news/L-omc-revoit-a-la-baisse-ses-previsions-pour-le-commerce-en-2026%2C1771350.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com “L’OMC revoit à la baisse ses prévisions pour le commerce en 2026 – FashionNetwork France”[2]: https://www.valtus.fr/2025/06/20/supply-chains-en-mutation-sadapter-aux-nouvelles-routes-commerciales-mondiales/?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Supply Chain : s’adapter aux nouvelles routes commerciales mondiales face aux tensions géopolitiques”[3]: https://fr.fashionnetwork.com/news/Commerce-specialise-les-ventes-en-magasins-reculent-de-1-9-en-septembre-2025-selon-procos%2C1772950.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Commerce spécialisé: les ventes en magasins reculent de 1,9% en septembre 2025, selon Procos – FashionNetwork France”[4]: https://mc.fashionnetwork.com/news/Commerce-specialise-les-ventes-en-magasins-reculent-de-1-9-en-septembre-2025-selon-procos%2C1772950.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Commerce spécialisé: les ventes en magasins reculent de 1,9% en septembre 2025, selon Procos – FashionNetwork Monaco”[5]: https://www.ecommerce-nation.fr/mode-un-mois-de-septembre-2025-en-recul-selon-lalliance-du-commerce/?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Mode : un mois de septembre 2025 en recul selon l’Alliance du Commerce”[6]: https://www.cross-border-association.com/whats-new-in-e-commerce-november-6-2025/?utm_source=chatgpt.com “What’s New in E-commerce? — November 6, 2025 – Cross-Border Commerce Association”[7]: https://lareclame.fr/retailmedia2026-marcfischli-326466?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Retail media 2026 : chronique d’une transformation annoncée – La Réclame”[8]: https://www.comexposium.com/newsroom/presse/nrf-europe-2025-succes-mondial-retail/?utm_source=chatgpt.com “NRF2025:Retail’s Big Show un succès mondial pour le retail”[9]: https://www.voxlog.fr/actualite/10192/bilan-de-la-premiere-edition-de-nrf-2025-retails-big-show-europe?utm_source=chatgpt.com “Bilan de la première édition de NRF 2025 : Retail’s Big Show Europe”[10]: https://www.costar.com/article/238081764/quand-le-commerce-enchante-de-nouveau-les-investisseurs?utm_source=chatgpt.com “News | Quand le commerce enchante de nouveau les investisseurs”Here is a roundup of recent developments in global and European commerce — supply-chain shifts, retail trends and broader market signals — as of December 9, 2025. I highlight tensions, structural shifts, and what they mean for businesses and consumers.
🌍 Macro & Global Trade: A Slowing but Tense Outlook
- The Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) recently revised down its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 0.5%, a sharp drop from the 1.8% anticipated earlier. (FashionNetwork)
- While 2025 is forecast at about 2.4% growth, boosted in part by a surge in goods tied to AI and some front-loaded demand ahead of tariff changes, the outlook for 2026 reflects growing uncertainty. (FashionNetwork)
- This slowdown underlines a fragile global trade context, where protectionist pressures, geopolitical frictions, and shifting supply-chain strategies are reshaping the flow of goods worldwide. (Valtus)
Implication: Businesses — especially those reliant on cross-border supply chains — must prepare for tighter margins and less predictable demand; diversification of sourcing and flexibility in logistics planning will likely be more critical than ever.
🛒 Retail & E-commerce: Transformation, But Mixed Results
Physical retail under pressure
- In France, the specialised retail segment saw sales drop 1.9% in September 2025 vs. the same month in 2024 (on a like-for-like surface basis), according to the panel Procos. For the first three quarters of 2025, cumulative sales are down 0.7% compared to 2024. (FashionNetwork)
- The decline is uneven across sectors: while “Culture, Gifts & Leisure” — boosted by toys — and home-equipment saw modest gains, clothing, beauty/perfume retail and even sectors tied to beauty and personal care suffered steep declines (around –5%). (FashionNetwork Monaco)
- The clothing sector is particularly hard hit: according to Alliance du Commerce, fashion store turnover dropped 5.8% in September 2025, with foot traffic down 6.5% and online sales down 2.3%. (ECN | E-Commerce Nation)
These numbers paint a challenging picture for bricks-and-mortar retail, even as festive season spending approaches.
E-commerce and marketplace dominance
- Marketplaces now account for around 70% of European e-commerce revenue (on a €358.7 billion base in 2024/2025), amounting to roughly €247.5 billion — a clear indicator that marketplaces, rather than individual webshops, drive the bulk of online retail. (Cross-Border Commerce Association)
- Meanwhile, the structure of retail media is evolving fast: as argued in a recent analysis of 2026 trends, the rise of AI, shifting consumer expectations, and demand for integrated experiences are pushing retailers and brands to rethink how they advertise and sell — from fragmented platforms to more streamlined, data-driven “retail media” strategies. (la Réclame)
Implication: E-commerce remains robust and increasingly centralized in marketplaces. For brands, success increasingly depends on mastering marketplace algorithms, data analytics, and orchestrating omnichannel strategies — while physical retailers must rethink formats, services, and value propositions.
📦 Supply Chain & Logistics: Disruptions, Reorganisation, and the Role of Tech
- Global supply chains are increasingly strained under shifting trade policies, geopolitical uncertainty, and evolving regulatory environments — driving many firms to reassess sourcing geographies and supply-chain resilience. (Valtus)
- The increasing complexity of supply-chain management is pushing companies to adopt advanced technologies. As showcased by the first European edition of NRF 2025: Retail’s Big Show Europe — held in Paris — a major focus was on AI-powered logistics, real-time data analytics, omnichannel fulfillment and sustainable supply-chain solutions. (comexposium.com)
- The success of that show (12,500+ participants from 58 countries, 500 exhibitors, and 100+ startups) underlines how critical innovation is to navigating today’s volatile supply-chain environment. (Voxlog)
Implication: Firms that invest in supply-chain digitization, AI-driven forecasting, and diversified sourcing may better buffer themselves against future disruptions. Supply-chain agility is becoming not a “nice-to-have,” but a survival imperative.
🏢 Investment & Real Estate in Retail: Some Signs of Renewed Confidence
- According to a June 2025 review, real-estate investors have begun to return to retail assets in France. In 2024–2025, retail properties accounted for a significant portion of total commercial real-estate investment volumes — up to 40% of early 2025 flows. (CoStar)
- Large deals — notably the acquisition by Ardian of a 60% stake in a prime Parisian retail-property portfolio from luxury group Kering (for €837 million) — illustrate investor belief in long-term value, even as retail faces headwinds. (CoStar)
- Some players interpret this as the beginning of a rebound: after years of “retail-bashing,” investors now view retail as a viable asset class once again — albeit with caution. (CoStar)
Implication: Despite macroeconomic and retail-sector challenges, the real-estate attractiveness of retail locations — especially well-located, “prime” sites — remains high. This could benefit city-centre commerce over big-box malls, and suggests a revaluation of retail property as a long-term investment.
⚠️ Big Themes & Risks to Watch
- Uncertain demand + rising costs: Falling consumer confidence, inflation, and cost-of-living pressures (especially in Europe) may depress consumption, particularly discretionary spending (fashion, beauty, leisure).
- Dependency on marketplaces and supply chains: The dominance of marketplaces centralizes power, which can squeeze margins for smaller retailers. Reliance on complex global supply chains adds fragility.
- Need for digital transformation: Firms that don’t invest in AI, data analytics, omnichannel integration and flexible logistics risk being left behind — both online and offline.
- Regulatory and trade-policy volatility: As the global trade environment shifts (tariffs, export controls, geopolitical tensions), firms must adapt quickly or face disruptions.
- Real-estate bifurcation: While prime retail real-estate remains appealing to investors, lower-tier locations may suffer further as footfall declines.
✅ What Businesses & Retailers Should Do — Key Recommendations
- Diversify sourcing and suppliers — avoid over-reliance on single-country supply chains; consider near-shoring or multi-country sourcing to mitigate risks.
- Accelerate digital transformation and AI adoption, especially for supply-chain, inventory management, demand forecasting and omnichannel retail.
- Rethink physical retail formats and value propositions — focus on experience, convenience, services, and differentiation to counter declining footfall.
- Leverage marketplaces intelligently — optimize presence, data use and visibility; tailor strategies for digital shelf space.
- Monitor real-estate investments and location strategy — prime locations may offer long-term value; secondary ones need adaptation or repurposing.
If you like, I can project scenarios for 2026 — showing likely “best-case”, “worst-case” and “baseline” paths for global commerce & retail.
