NAIROBI/DAR ES SALAAM — East Africa’s business landscape in early November 2026 is being shaped by three quiet but consequential shifts: a push to dismantle the dollar’s grip on regional trade, a landmark financing deal that will extend Tanzania’s railway to the edge of Lake Tanganyika, and a coordinated surge by East African exporters into the Chinese market. These developments are less dramatic than the region’s security and humanitarian crises, but they may prove more durable in determining whether East Africa’s growth translates into shared prosperity.
The Slow Death of the Dollar in Intra-EAC Trade
The East African Community is moving deliberately to reduce its reliance on the US dollar for cross-border transactions. On November 3, Uganda’s First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for EAC Affairs, Rebecca Kadaga, told Parliament that the bloc is developing an integrated payment and settlement system designed to allow individuals and businesses to transfer money “securely, instantly and affordably” between member states using bank accounts, mobile money wallets, and other digital channels .
The existing East African Payment System already connects the real-time gross settlement systems of Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda, enabling commercial banks to settle transactions in regional currencies. But Burundi, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Somalia are not yet fully integrated, limiting the system’s coverage . The EAC’s Cross-Border Payment System Masterplan, adopted in 2025, provides for expanding the platform, harmonizing licensing and regulation of payment service providers, and increasing the use of partner states’ currencies in regional transactions .
The practical problem is liquidity. Uganda’s Shadow Minister for EAC Affairs, Hakim Kizza, welcomed the initiative but pointed out a stubborn reality: “Despite the rhetoric of local currency settlement, traders are still forced to convert to the US dollar for cross-border transactions due to liquidity shortages in regional currencies at commercial bank levels” . A Ugandan trader buying goods from Kenya must convert shillings to dollars, then dollars to Kenyan shillings—a double conversion that banks profit from and that raises the cost of doing business. Kizza called for a central bank-backed liquidity facility to ensure commercial banks have sufficient supplies of regional currencies .
The stakes are not merely transactional. A functioning regional payment system would deepen intra-EAC trade, lower costs for small and medium enterprises, and lay the foundation for the proposed East African Monetary Union. Whether it can overcome the liquidity constraints that have defeated previous attempts at de-dollarization is the test ahead.
Tanzania’s Railway: $1.2 Billion for the Central Corridor
The African Development Bank and Tanzania signed a $1.2 billion commercial financing facility on November 4 for the Tabora–Kigoma section of the Standard Gauge Railway, a 411-kilometre electrified line that will connect Tanzania’s western regions to the port of Dar es Salaam and, via Lake Tanganyika, to the Democratic Republic of Congo .
The AfDB structured and arranged an $800 million partial credit guarantee—its largest to date—mobilizing a nine-bank syndicate co-arranged by Deutsche Bank and Société Générale. The lenders include HSBC, Commerzbank, Nedbank, Stanbic Bank Tanzania, First Abu Dhabi Bank, FirstBank UK, and Bank of Africa UK. Their commitments comprise $720 million of guaranteed lending and $480 million of clean-risk lending to the sovereign .
The financing is part of a broader $2.3 billion package for the line, and a demonstration of blended finance in practice: the AfDB guarantee covers principal plus two years of interest, while credit insurance arranged by broker Texel distributes $405.5 million of exposure to international insurers including Lloyd’s syndicates .
For Tanzania, the railway is an economic development tool as much as a transport project. The line will serve farmers, mining operators, and the general population with more efficient transport and lower costs. Connected to the wider network and Dar es Salaam, it will support trade with eastern DRC through Kigoma and Kalemie ports, and strengthen links with Burundi . The AfDB’s Max Ndiaye described the transaction as reflecting the vision behind the New African Financial Architecture for Development, “focusing on private capital mobilization and partnerships in risk sharing” .
The China Market: A Coordinated Push
East African exporters are converging on Shanghai this week for the ninth China International Import Expo, running November 5–10, and the scale of the delegation reflects how central the Chinese market has become to the region’s trade strategy.
Ethiopia’s AWO Coffee is returning for a second year. General Manager Tesfaye Gebru told Xinhua that the company’s debut at the 2025 expo produced results exceeding expectations, with export volume to China rising 30 to 40 percent since. The company now exports about 90 percent of its roasted products to China . China became the third-largest destination for Ethiopian coffee in the 2025/26 fiscal year, up from fifth the previous year, with Ethiopia exporting 47,836 tons to China .
Kenya is using the expo to push tea, coffee, macadamia, avocado, and cut flowers. Floice Mukabana, CEO of the Kenya Export Promotion and Branding Agency, said China’s zero-tariff policy for African countries, which took effect in May, has helped open the door, but that compliance with customs and health regulations remains essential. “Tariff preference helps open the door, and CIIE serves as the bridge between that policy access and actual sales to China,” she said .
Tanzania sent 36 enterprises and government institutions, up from six in 2021. Deputy Minister for Industry and Trade Dennis Londo urged exhibitors to engage with buyers and understand Chinese market requirements. China’s imports from Tanzania reached $290 million in the first half of 2026, up 12 percent year on year, and the first consignment of Tanzanian honey entered the Chinese market through a dedicated green channel .
Rwanda’s M&M Sozo, a honey producer, is also participating. Founder Grace Mbabazi said the expo’s free stands and the zero-tariff policy have reduced the cost of market entry, allowing her to reinvest in product development and packaging. The company produces seven tons of honey monthly and works with 36 permanent beekeepers, with plans to expand from 5,000 to 25,000 hives by 2028 .
The Industrial Bet Closer to Home
Uganda, meanwhile, is making its own pitch to investors. At the Vipingo Export Processing Zone in Kilifi, Kenya, the government is offering zero-rated import duties on equipment for value addition and a policy of prioritizing locally manufactured goods in public procurement. The zone, located 45 kilometers from the Port of Mombasa, is expected to create 50,000 direct jobs and support up to 250,000 additional jobs once fully operational .
Uganda’s industrial sector is growing at 6.4 percent annually and now accounts for 24.9 percent of GDP. The country has more than 12,000 formal manufacturing industries, up from 81 in 1986, employing over 1.8 million Ugandans and contributing 33 percent of total tax revenue. Exports of goods and services rose from $5.93 billion in 2022 to $18.04 billion in 2026, driven by gold, coffee, cocoa, sugar, fish, and manufactured products .
The government is strengthening the Uganda Development Corporation and the Uganda Development Bank to provide long-term capital. UDC has a capitalization target of UGX 5 trillion within five years, while UDB has cumulative capital of approximately UGX 1.6 trillion . Whether these institutions can translate industrial ambition into competitive exports will depend on the same factors that have constrained East African manufacturing for decades: reliable electricity, affordable finance, and access to markets beyond the region.
The Common Thread
Each of these developments—the payment system, the railway financing, the China export push, the industrial parks—addresses a different bottleneck. The payment system tackles the cost of cross-border transactions. The railway tackles transport logistics. The China push tackles market access. The industrial parks tackle production capacity. None is sufficient on its own. But together they represent a coherent, if incremental, strategy: reduce the friction that makes it expensive to do business across East African borders, connect producers to ports and ports to markets, and find buyers willing to pay for what the region grows and makes.
For the traders converting shillings to dollars and back, the farmers waiting for a railway line to reach their district, and the coffee roasters preparing shipments to Shanghai, the question is whether these strategies will move fast enough to matter. East Africa’s business future depends on it.
