July 15, 2026 — Day 1,190 of the War
The past week has witnessed a dramatic escalation in Sudan’s civil war, with the strategically vital city of El-Obeid emerging as the latest battleground for atrocities reminiscent of the El-Fasher massacre. As drone strikes rain down on civilian infrastructure and humanitarian access is systematically choked, the international community has issued its most forceful warnings yet—but the warring factions show little sign of heeding them.
The Siege of El-Obeid: A City Under the Gun
El-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan state and home to approximately 500,000 residents plus over 83,000 internally displaced people, has become the focal point of the conflict’s latest phase . The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have tightened their siege, launching relentless drone attacks targeting the main power station, fuel facilities, markets, schools, and water infrastructure .
The human toll has been devastating. In just three weeks last month, the UN Human Rights Office documented 15 drone strikes on El-Obeid and surrounding areas, killing at least 45 civilians . The Emergency Lawyers Group reported that 15 civilians were killed in two drone attacks on July 13-14 alone, with one strike hitting a vehicle carrying people to a wedding, killing 13 including five women .
UNICEF reported that at least 330 children were killed or injured across Sudan in the first half of 2026, with drone attacks accounting for 60 percent of child casualties in North Kordofan . The affected children ranged from just two months to 17 years old .
The Humanitarian Abyss: Displacement and Hunger
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that more than 87,000 people were newly displaced in Kordofan over the past four months, bringing the total to over 219,000—a 65 percent increase since October 2025 . Across Sudan, the war has displaced more than 9 million people inside the country and forced over 1.6 million to flee abroad .
The World Food Programme (WFP) warned that Sudan risks sliding backwards into deeper hunger. Nearly 19.5 million people face high levels of acute food insecurity, with more than 100,000 facing catastrophic famine-like conditions . The WFP has reduced the number of people it assists from 5 million a year ago to about 3.5 million, facing a $646 million funding gap after cuts from major donors .
The conflict in the Gulf has compounded the crisis. Soaring diesel prices and fertilizer shortages linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threaten to undermine Sudan’s food security during the current planting season, as the country relies heavily on fertilizer imports and irrigation pumps .
The Diplomatic Front: Ceasefire Proposals and Conditions
Amid the escalating violence, diplomatic efforts have intensified. The Sudanese Army’s Security and Defense Council, chaired by Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, announced on July 12 that it had reached a “mutually agreed” response to a peace proposal submitted by international mediators .
However, the army has made the withdrawal of the RSF from cities under its control a key condition for accepting a US-backed peace proposal . The proposal reportedly calls for a 90-day humanitarian truce, followed by negotiations on a permanent ceasefire and a civilian-led political transition. Analysts have described the army’s demands as “victor’s terms” that ignore the battlefield reality that neither side can achieve a decisive victory .
Massad Boulos, US Senior Advisor for Arab and African Affairs, cautioned against over-optimism, stating that discussions continue with multiple substantive issues yet to be accepted or outright rejected, and that “public comments, speculation, or alleged documents showing agreement or ‘settled’ issues are neither official nor helpful” .
G7 Condemnation and Global Pressure
On July 14, G7 foreign ministers issued a joint statement urging the RSF and allied armed groups to “immediately cease any action likely to lead to further atrocities or endanger civilians in El-Obeid, including drone strikes and impediments to humanitarian access” .
The ministers called on the UN Security Council to expand the Darfur arms embargo to all of Sudan, urged external actors to halt military and financial support to the warring sides, and vowed to promote accountability for violations . They reaffirmed their commitment to Sudan’s “sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity” while rejecting “all unilateral initiatives that risk leading to the country’s partition” .
The Arab League also warned of an imminent humanitarian catastrophe, with Secretary-General Nabil Fahmy stating that more than half a million civilians are under a “suffocating siege” and that continued military mobilization threatens to replicate the atrocities witnessed in El-Fasher—acts that “may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity” .
The El-Fasher Precedent: A Warning Unheeded
The warnings about El-Obeid carry particular weight given the precedent of El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, where RSF forces committed mass atrocities in 2025. According to the UN Human Rights Office, 6,000 people were killed in a three-day rampage of war crimes and crimes against humanity in El-Fasher last October .
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk issued a stark warning: “These crimes were foreseen, with repeated warnings by myself and my Office. But they were not prevented.” He emphasized that the “red alert” being issued “is not a drill” and needs to land on the desks of Heads of State around the world .
IOM Chief of Mission Refaat Mohamed noted that civilians “continue to be the main targets in this conflict,” with the aim being “to displace them… to start taking cities, empty cities.” He stressed that the El-Fasher outrage “was not a one-time incident” but part of a long-term trend .
The Children’s Crisis
The war’s impact on children has been particularly devastating. UNICEF Representative for Sudan Sheldon Yett stated: “Children are being caught in a relentless cycle of violence, displacement and deprivation. For many children, there is no safe place left. They are being killed and injured in their homes, on the roads, in markets, and while attempting to access essential services such as education and healthcare” .
The conflict continues to expose children to grave violations, including recruitment and use, abduction, sexual violence, and attacks on schools and hospitals .
The Road Ahead: An Uncertain Future
As July 2026 unfolds, Sudan remains trapped in a cycle of violence that shows no signs of abating. The RSF’s siege of El-Obeid continues, the army’s conditions for a ceasefire appear to preempt a genuine peace process, and the international community’s calls for action have yet to translate into concrete measures.
The IOM warned that El-Obeid could face the same fate as El-Fasher, where mass abuses were reported following the RSF takeover . With more than 30 million people expected to require humanitarian assistance in 2026 and a significant funding gap, the outlook is bleak .
For now, the residents of El-Obeid remain trapped between the RSF’s drones and the army’s demands, with no safe passage and no end in sight. As Sudan’s representative to the UN Human Rights Council declared with defiant hope: “For your information I am from El Obeid; this wounded city, it will never fall, as long as we are alive” . But for the children, the displaced, and the hungry, survival is not a guarantee—it is a daily struggle against overwhelming odds.
